A conflict across the Taiwan Strait would have a greater impact on the global economy than World War II, Raymond Greene, director of the American Institute in Taiwan, said at a defense forum in Taipei. Greene urged the United States and China to use an upcoming summit to promote strategic stability and avoid misunderstandings or miscalculations. The United States has no formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan but remains its most important international backer and arms supplier. Greene said Washington was reinforcing Indo-Pacific partnerships and supporting Taiwan’s efforts to strengthen its defenses. Taiwan’s government, led by President Lai Ching-te, has made defense spending and military modernization priorities and budgeted more than T$1 trillion for defense next year. Prediction-market pricing puts the probability of a Chinese invasion by December 31, 2027, at 10.5%, down from 12%.