Mexico’s finance ministry projects economic growth of 1.5% to 2.5% in 2027, while the broader public-sector deficit is expected to narrow to 3.9% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to a draft budget proposal submitted to Congress on Tuesday. The document lowers the 2026 growth estimate to 1.0% to 2.0% from an earlier 1.8% to 2.8% range, and compares the 2027 deficit forecast with 4.1% of GDP projected for 2026. The 2027 outlook rests on domestic demand, higher household incomes, less restrictive financial conditions, infrastructure investment and tax incentives under the Plan Mexico initiative. Export growth supported by North American trade integration is also expected to contribute. Total public debt, measured by the Historical Balance of Public Sector Borrowing Requirements (SHRFSP), is projected at 55.0% of GDP in 2027, versus 54.0% at the end of 2026. Headline inflation is forecast to end 2027 at 3.0%, matching the Bank of Mexico’s official target. State oil company Pemex is slated to receive 81.1 billion Mexican pesos ($4.80 billion) for debt repayment in 2027, down from 263.5 billion pesos in the prior budget, while 255.5 billion pesos is earmarked for priority investment projects. The framework assumes Mexico’s crude export mix will average $61.80 per barrel in 2027, compared with an estimated $78.40 in 2026, and projects total liquid hydrocarbon production of 1.80 million barrels per day.