Bitcoin surged almost 30% in August, intensifying debate over whether the bear market has ended or whether another deep decline remains possible. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson said Bitcoin's Balanced Price, a historical valuation zone based on older coins' spending activity, is near $38,400. The metric has identified deep cycle bottoms, although the intervals between major interactions have lengthened from 732 days to 1,120, 1,200 and 1,420 days. Bitcoin has spent about 1,400 days since its last interaction with the zone, while the time spent below it has declined from several weeks in earlier cycles to about one day in 2022. Wedson said this does not require Bitcoin to revisit $38,000 and raised the possibility that the asset could eventually break the historical pattern. If the pattern repeats, the $40,000 area could still serve as a potential capitulation target. At the same time, very bullish sentiment has become dominant on social media, stronger than the uncertainty following the late-2022 and early-2023 bottom. That optimism could increase vulnerability to forced liquidations and another selling wave if prices fall sharply. Trader Killa expects a new all-time high in Q4 next year and sees Bitcoin above $126,000 by November 2027, while estimating from the 2022 cycle that a new high should arrive no later than February 2028. He said the current cycle is moving faster after bottoming roughly three to four months earlier, potentially bringing that timeline forward.