Japanese bond yields rise as global selloff pressures institutional demand

  • Higher Japanese yields and global bond-market pressure are increasing the appeal of domestic assets and could weaken Japanese demand for U.S. Treasuries.
  • The newly issued 10-year JGB yield reached 2.935% and the benchmark settled at 2.910%, while the 30-year JGB yield previously reached a record 4.18%.
  • Japan holds roughly $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, but BlackRock’s illustrative 5% shift equals $55 billion and Fitch does not expect broad liquidation.

Higher Japanese government bond yields are making domestic assets more attractive to institutional investors and could reduce demand for U.S. Treasuries, Fitch Ratings and BlackRock said. The newly issued 10-year JGB yield briefly reached 2.935%, while the benchmark settled at 2.910%; an earlier market reading had briefly placed the 10-year yield above 3%, its highest level since September 1996. The 30-year JGB yield reached a record 4.18%. Global pressure came from higher U.S. Treasury yields, Brent crude above $101 a barrel, Middle East tensions, heavy corporate issuance and expectations that interest rates will remain higher for longer. A yen-hedged 10-year U.S. Treasury yielded about 2% for Japanese investors versus roughly 3% on a comparable JGB. Japan holds about $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, and BlackRock’s hypothetical 5% shift represents $55 billion, not a forecast of actual selling. Fitch does not expect broad liquidation or a JGB fire sale, while Japanese megabanks are cautiously rebuilding domestic holdings and life insurers are replacing older lower-coupon bonds with higher-coupon securities.

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