Jefferies sees 21% upside for Liberty Media Formula One, starts coverage with buy

  • Jefferies initiated coverage of Liberty Formula One with a Buy recommendation and a $115 target.
  • $94.95 was the recent trading price, implying approximately 21% potential appreciation.
  • Liberty Media expects net leverage below 1x by the end of 2028.

Jefferies initiated coverage of Liberty Formula One (FWONK) with a Buy recommendation and a $115 price target, implying roughly 21% upside from the recent trading price of $94.95. Analyst Anthony Berni described the company as a high-quality media and consumer experiences business focused on affluent audiences. Jefferies values the stock at 1.6 times enterprise value to OIBDA growth. The company has a $23.6 billion market capitalization and generated $4.02 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, up 8% year over year. Revenue is projected to rise from $4.73 billion in 2025 to $5.84 billion in 2028, while adjusted OIBDA margins expand from 23.8% to 27.2%. The investment case rests on capital-efficient growth in media rights and sponsorships, stronger negotiating advantages in team payments and value creation from the 2025 MotoGP acquisition. Jefferies expects the U.S. Apple TV agreement to generate about $55 million in annual media-rights revenue through 2030, with potential additional upside if Apple pursues global rights. MotoGP is viewed as an under-monetized platform: Formula One generates about five times its media-rights income, six times its race-promotion revenue and 10 times its sponsorship revenue despite having roughly twice the global fan base. The firm also expects free-cash-flow conversion above 70% and net leverage below 1x by the end of 2028, compared with about 3.8x after the MotoGP purchase. The latest quarterly results missed analyst expectations because of race-schedule timing, while Guggenheim raised its price target to $134 and Liberty Media disclosed a $600 million convertible senior notes offering with an additional $90 million provision.

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