European gas prices top €80 as Hormuz tensions raise LNG supply risks

  • European Dutch TTF gas traded at €79.21/MWh after exceeding €80 in the previous session.
  • EU gas inventories were around 67% full, below the 84% five-year average.
  • Higher Asian JKM prices have increased competition for LNG cargoes bound for Europe.

Europe's benchmark Dutch TTF gas contract traded flat at €79.21 per megawatt-hour in early trading after breaching €80 in the previous session, leaving prices at their highest level since late 2022. Supply concerns have intensified as attacks and threats around the Strait of Hormuz disrupt LNG shipments, while maintenance in Norway and lower Algerian flows to Italy restrict pipeline deliveries. European inventories are around 67% full, well below the 84% five-year average, increasing the market's exposure to disruption as the next heating season approaches. A widening gap between TTF and the Asian JKM spot LNG benchmark is adding support to European prices because higher Asian prices increase competition for seaborne cargoes. The market is also contending with reduced Russian pipeline supplies, damaged Qatari LNG capacity and weaker incentives to refill storage. A cold winter could leave storage near 14% by next spring, while HSBC forecasts inventories at 73% by November 1, still the weakest seasonal level since data collection began in 2009.

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