Central banks are placing greater weight on refined-fuel markets as a global refining shortage drives gasoline and diesel costs higher despite crude oil remaining available. The key indicator is the crack spread, the difference between crude prices and wholesale refined-fuel prices. The Bank of England estimates that higher energy prices will add about 0.4 percentage points to UK CPI inflation in the second half of 2026, including roughly 0.3 points from petrol and diesel. The ECB has also said crude prices are becoming a less reliable gauge of broader energy-market pressure. Diesel futures, diesel crack spreads and European gasoline refining margins have all risen sharply, increasing the risk of persistent inflation, higher bond yields and pressure on growth stocks.