UBS Wealth Management expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in September and December 2026, taking the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 4.00%-4.25%. Kalshi assigns a 64% probability to a September hike and 36% to no change, while other futures and prediction-market readings cited about 60% and 70.5% odds. Most economists surveyed by Reuters nevertheless expected the Fed to hold rates at its September 15-16 meeting. August headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% month over month and core CPI 0.2%, with energy prices, the Iran war, tariffs and chip shortages adding to inflation pressures that are relatively insensitive to interest rates. AI infrastructure spending is supporting non-residential construction and may cushion growth, while higher borrowing costs weigh on housing and consumer discretionary spending.