WTI crude futures rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since May as U.S.-Iran hostilities disrupted Gulf energy flows, while Brent climbed above $104 and traded around $105. Saudi Arabia reported August 2026 crude production of 6.238 million barrels a day, down 1.9 million barrels a day and its lowest level since the 1990 Gulf War, although OPEC secondary-source estimates put output at 7.276 million barrels a day. Saudi Arabia reported market supply of 7.122 million barrels a day, indicating inventory releases were helping offset reduced production. Vortexa estimated the conflict had removed about 10 million barrels a day of crude exports, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 289.7 million barrels and the IEA's 400-million-barrel emergency release was about three-quarters depleted. Higher energy costs revived inflation concerns, with the U.S. Producer Price Index accelerating to 5.4% year over year and energy prices rising 4.2% from July, while U.S. long-term borrowing costs reached their highest level since June 2007. Polymarket traders raised the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase from about 50% to as high as 64% after the PPI report. Truflation CEO Stefan Rust nevertheless predicted no hike next week, saying oil above $110 could change his view and arguing that Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish rhetoric masks dovish instincts. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, while President Trump was reported to be preparing potential $5,000 dividends.