Friday CPI Report Could Determine Whether Fed Raises Rates Next Week

  • Federal Reserve policymakers will use Friday’s August CPI report before next week’s rate decision.
  • Economists forecast core CPI rising 0.2% monthly and 2.4% annually in August.
  • Investors priced a 60% chance of a quarter-point increase as of Wednesday.

Friday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index report could shape the Federal Reserve’s decision on whether to raise interest rates next week, with policymakers scheduled to announce their decision on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by FactSet expect headline CPI to rise 0.4% in August after a 0.1% increase in July, while annual inflation is forecast to slow to 3.3% from 3.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to increase 0.2% for the month and 2.4% from a year earlier, down from 2.5% in July and potentially its lowest level since early 2021. Higher gasoline prices and energy costs are expected to lift headline inflation, while housing costs, the largest CPI component, are forecast to remain subdued. Economists also expect the artificial-intelligence data-center buildout to put upward pressure on computer, memory and data-storage prices. Investors saw a 60% chance as of Wednesday that the Fed would raise rates by a quarter point on Sept. 16, which would be its first increase since 2023. The central bank has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% since December, while officials remain divided over whether inflation is moving sustainably toward the Fed’s 2% target.

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