30-year Treasury yield reaches 5.354% as oil surge lifts rate-hike bets

  • The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.354% and the 10-year yield approached 4.93% as oil prices and inflation concerns drove a bond selloff.
  • Treasury raised its long-dated buyback ceiling to $6 billion from $2 billion, but analysts said the operation was too small to offset deficits, inflation and bond supply.
  • U.S. stocks and precious metals declined while Fed hike odds rose to roughly 70% before Friday's August CPI release.

U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices rose sharply Thursday, pressuring stocks and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its next meeting. The 30-year yield reached 5.354% intraday, its highest level since June 2007 in one report and May 2007 in another, while the 10-year yield reached about 4.93%, its highest level since 2023. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 5.6% to $101.43 a barrel and Brent gained 5.5% to $106.78 after geopolitical tensions disrupted energy markets. August producer prices rose 0.4% month over month and 5.4% year over year, above the 5.3% consensus, lifting CME FedWatch odds of a 0.25 percentage-point hike from roughly 62% to 70% ahead of Friday's CPI report. The Treasury announced a buyback of up to $6 billion of securities maturing in 10 to 20 years, triple the previous $2 billion maximum, but analysts said the operation was too small relative to the roughly $32 trillion Treasury market to materially change supply-demand conditions. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Dow declined 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.7%, while gold and silver also fell as markets repriced interest-rate expectations.

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