BOJ seen raising rates to 1.25% on Sept. 18, Reuters poll shows

  • Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18.
  • 97% of surveyed economists predicted a September 18 rate increase.
  • Japan's 143.1 trillion yen budget requests heightened fiscal-discipline concerns among economists.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ, Japan's central bank) is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18 and to 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, according to a Reuters poll conducted September 1-8. Expectations have accelerated as broader price pressures persist, the yen remains weak and U.S. officials press Japan for decisive monetary action. More than 80% of respondents said the joint U.S.-Japan yen-buying intervention and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's comments had lowered political barriers to BOJ hikes, raising questions about the bank's independence. The yen traded around 153.37 per dollar on Wednesday, near its strongest level since February. Separately, economists said Japan's 143.1 trillion yen budget-request total, driven by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal agenda, is increasing concerns about fiscal discipline and government funding.

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