Sen. John Fetterman’s recorded appearance at a Republican midterm convention in Dallas triggered a sharp move in Kalshi’s prediction market on whether the Pennsylvania Democrat will leave his party. The market currently prices a 52% chance of a departure before 2028, 45% before Aug. 1, 2027, and 38% before April 1, 2027, after a slight selloff from the initial surge. Fetterman later used the appearance in a fundraising text and an ActBlue donation page featuring the video, his partnership with Republican Sen. David McCormick and donation options ranging from $5 to $250. In the video, Fetterman calls himself a common-sense Democrat, says he will stand with America and rejects socialism and what he describes as an anti-American way of life. The convention appearance drew criticism from Democrats including Pennsylvania Rep. Madeleine Dean, who called it a stunt and gravely disappointing. Fetterman has nevertheless reaffirmed that he is a lifelong Democrat who votes overwhelmingly with his party and would remain its 51st Senate vote if Democrats won a 51-49 majority in November 2026. His relationship with McCormick, including their joint fundraising committee, has already drawn criticism from Democrats and former aides.