Prediction-market pricing for including Iran reconstruction funding in a potential U.S.-Iran deal by the end of 2026 has edged lower, with YES shares falling to 11.5% from 12% a day earlier. The move follows a Jerusalem Post report that advisers to President Donald Trump have warned the conflict could continue through the remainder of his presidency, despite Trump’s public suggestions that it might end after the midterm elections. The U.S.-Iran war began in February 2026 and has continued to include U.S. strikes on Iranian targets. The military exchanges and warnings of a prolonged engagement have reduced market confidence in a comprehensive agreement being finalized this year. Further military action, diplomatic breakthroughs or ceasefire agreements could change pricing, while statements from Trump and Iranian officials remain key developments to watch. The analysis is powered by Vera, which invites users to sign up for its live prediction-market coverage.