Portugal’s Fitch upgrade highlights euro zone’s PIIGS debt reversal

  • Fitch upgraded Portugal’s debt, marking its second rating increase in one year.
  • Italy and Greece offer yields above 4%, while Ireland’s stand at 3.5%.
  • Greece’s debt ratio is forecast to fall to about 137% of GDP by 2026.

Fitch’s upgrade of Portugal’s debt last week, its second in a year, marked the latest improvement among the five euro zone countries once labelled the PIIGS during Europe’s 2011 debt crisis. Fifteen years later, rising inflation and burgeoning U.S. debt are weighing on global bond markets, while the former crisis laggards have generally strengthened their public finances. Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain now have government bond yields below France’s, although Italy remains the outlier because of its high debt burden and persistently sluggish economic growth. German bonds have also come under pressure after Alternative for Germany’s weekend victory in Saxony-Anhalt, with 10-year Bund yields reaching their highest level since 2011 on Wednesday and markets questioning Berlin’s AAA rating. The five countries’ bond-market paths diverged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting different energy-import dependencies and government measures to protect households and businesses from inflation. Greece has posted the sharpest rating recovery, while Ireland and Portugal have regained much of the credit standing lost during the crisis. Greece and Portugal have also reduced debt substantially; Ireland’s debt ratio fell sharply as nominal GDP rose through multinational direct investment. Italy’s debt ratio has increased since 2024 and is forecast to overtake Greece this year as the euro zone’s highest.

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