BIS head warns AI boom poses financial stability risks as spending surges

  • Pablo Hernandez de Cos warned debt-financed AI investment and concentrated technology shares could threaten financial stability if returns disappoint.
  • The five largest technology firms plan more than $1 trillion in AI spending during 2025-2026, while PwC projects $31.6 trillion of cumulative infrastructure investment through 2050.
  • Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius said AI spending will eventually slow as the industry moves from investment to exploitation, even if the build-out proves productive.

The artificial-intelligence investment boom is creating financial-stability risks as major technology companies commit capital faster than cash flow and increasingly rely on debt and private credit, Bank for International Settlements head Pablo Hernandez de Cos said. The world’s five largest technology firms plan to invest more than $1 trillion in AI-related projects in 2025 and 2026, while PwC projects global AI infrastructure investment will reach $31.6 trillion cumulatively through 2050. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said spending would eventually slow as the industry shifts from an investment phase to an exploitation phase, although his baseline assumption is that AI investment will prove productive. Hernandez de Cos warned that opaque links among chipmakers, hyperscalers and AI companies, along with concentrated technology shares, could amplify a downturn if commercial returns disappoint. PwC said recurring upgrades to chips and connected equipment will keep driving capital needs across technology, energy, real estate, supply chains, regulation and financing.

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