Oil surge drives Treasury yields toward 5% as India’s 10-year yield reaches 7%

  • Oil-driven inflation fears pushed global government bond yields higher, with India’s 10-year G-Sec yield reaching around 7%.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.97% as Brent crude reached $109.97 a barrel and was set for an approximately 13% weekly gain.
  • Markets priced a 72% probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase next week, while Indian banking-system liquidity exceeded INR 10 trillion.

Surging oil prices and heightened Middle East tensions deepened a global bond and equity selloff, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield toward 5% and India’s 10-year government security yield to around 7%. Brent crude futures reached a four-month high of $109.97 a barrel and were set for an approximately 13% weekly gain as attacks and disruptions along shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea raised fears of prolonged supply shortages and higher inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.97% in Asian trading, while German, Japanese and Australian yields also climbed. Markets assigned a 72% probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase next week after stronger U.S. producer-price data, and Indian bonds faced additional pressure as banking-system liquidity exceeded INR 10 trillion and investors expected the Reserve Bank of India to withdraw liquidity. Friday’s Consumer Price Index report was the next major test, with a strong reading potentially pushing the Treasury yield above 5% and sustaining pressure on equities and borrowing costs.

The information on this website is generated using AI and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Please use it as reference information only.