Turkey lira hits record low as central bank holds 37% rate

  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey held its key policy rate at 37.0%.
  • The bank maintained its overnight lending rate at 40.0% and borrowing rate at 35.5%.
  • Turkey's August inflation rate was 31.51%, and the bank forecasts 28% inflation at end-2026.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey kept its key policy rate at 37.0% for a fifth consecutive meeting, maintaining its overnight lending rate at 40.0% and borrowing rate at 35.5%. The decision broadly matched expectations, although markets increasingly anticipate a monetary easing cycle beginning in October, with economists pricing in roughly 200 basis points of cuts across the October and December meetings. Turkey's August inflation rate stood at 31.51%, while the central bank raised its end-2026 forecast to 28% from 26% and retained a 24% target. The Turkish lira traded largely flat after the decision and Istanbul's benchmark stock index declined. The bank's cautious approach follows elevated energy prices and Middle East tensions, even as recent indicators show price growth slowing. A newer account indicates the bank resumed one-week repo auctions in August, revising earlier reports that they remained suspended after March.

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