Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank) officials have indicated they are prepared to raise interest rates if inflation does not improve quickly. Futures contracts currently imply about a 60% probability of a hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting. Wolfe Research Chief Economist Stephanie Roth said the Iran war, tariffs and chip shortages are the main forces pushing inflation above trend, arguing that one or two rate increases would be unlikely to fundamentally change those conditions. Rate hikes can restrain demand, but have more limited direct effects on supply disruptions and trade-related price pressures.