Bitcoin faces CPI test as US 10-year yield nears 5%

  • Bitcoin traded near $77,000 before the August US Consumer Price Index report.
  • The US 10-year Treasury yield stood around 4.94% and the Dollar Index near 99.15.
  • QCP placed next week's Federal Reserve rate-increase probability at roughly two-thirds.

Bitcoin traded near $77,000 after falling over the past 24 hours, with the US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.94% and the Dollar Index near 99.15 ahead of the August Consumer Price Index report. The inflation reading, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, was set to influence rate expectations before the Federal Reserve's Sept. 15-16 meeting. QCP said higher yields driven by inflation concerns, rather than stronger nominal growth, create a difficult backdrop for Bitcoin by offering investors a risk-free return near 5%. Economists expected core CPI, excluding food and energy, to rise 0.2% from July, while Brent crude's move as high as $109 a barrel added to inflation concerns. QCP put the probability of a rate increase next week at roughly two-thirds, compared with 61% on prediction markets. A softer inflation result could ease pressure on yields and support Bitcoin, while an upside surprise could intensify the selloff. Weekend conditions could magnify any move because US spot Bitcoin ETF trading and much institutional activity pause after US markets close.

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