Kalshi puts 64% odds on Fed’s 25-bp September hike after ECB move

Sep 10, 2026 13:07 (45d ago)

Kalshi raised the implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
64% reflects odds of a 25-bp hike, versus 36% for no change.
ECB raised rates by 25 basis points before the repricing occurred.

Kalshi now assigns a 64% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed interest-rate hike in September, compared with 36% for no change. The repricing came after the ECB (European Central Bank) raised rates by 25 basis points, while energy-driven inflation concerns have pushed central banks toward a more hawkish stance.