Oil tops $107 as Gulf disruptions lift bank forecasts and year-end record odds

  • Brent crude rose above $107 as Gulf shipping disruptions weighed on markets and U.S. stocks and bonds declined.
  • Major banks raised oil forecasts, while market pricing assigns a 14% chance of crude reaching a new all-time high by Dec. 31.
  • Strait of Hormuz vessel movements have fallen dramatically as Treasury yields hit multiyear highs and inflation concerns intensified.

Brent crude climbed above $107 as U.S. stocks and bonds declined, the S&P 500 recorded its longest losing streak since June and Treasury yields reached multiyear highs. Gulf shipping disruptions and dramatically lower vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted Goldman Sachs, Citi, UBS, Barclays and J.P. Morgan to raise oil-price forecasts, with Goldman citing expectations that disruptions will persist into next year. Market pricing assigns a 3.1% probability of crude reaching a new all-time high by Sept. 30, up from 2% a week earlier, and a 14% probability by Dec. 31. Investors are monitoring OPEC actions, Middle East geopolitics, sanctions, conflicts, global demand and supply, Energy Information Administration updates, and reports of major discoveries or disruptions.

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