Democrats lead Republicans by 11 points among voters asked which party they want to control the House after November’s midterm elections, while Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast remains essentially a coin flip. Quinnipiac University found 49% favoring Democratic House control and 38% supporting Republicans, compared with a 48%-41% Democratic lead in July. DDHQ gave Republicans a 51% chance of retaining the Senate after briefly assigning Democrats a 51% probability, down from a 60% Republican chance two months earlier. DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley said the national environment favors Democrats, with Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska and increasingly Iowa competitive, while Democrats lead in polling for North Carolina’s open Senate seat. Republicans hold a 218-214 House majority, and Democrats are seeking to flip at least five seats. Quinnipiac also found Democrats ahead 46%-35% on which party is more in touch with Americans’ concerns. The surveys and forecasts reflect dissatisfaction with President Trump’s approval ratings, high oil and gas prices and the economy, but the structurally favorable Senate map and early stage of the 2026 cycle leave the outcome uncertain.