German 10-year yield tops 3.5% as ECB signals further hikes

  • The ECB raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and signaled that inflation may remain above target until late 2027.
  • Germany's 10-year Bund yield crossed 3.5%, while markets priced a 94% probability of another quarter-point ECB increase in December.
  • Energy producers and insurers could benefit from higher energy prices and rates, while property, housebuilders, smaller companies and retailers may face pressure.

Eurozone borrowing costs rose after the European Central Bank lifted its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% and indicated inflation could remain above its 2% target until late 2027. Germany's 10-year Bund yield crossed 3.5%, while Italian yields reached their highest since late 2023 and French yields hit 18-year highs. Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities pushed crude oil above $100 a barrel, adding to inflation risks. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays, UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management expect another ECB rate increase in December; Citi also forecasts a further move in March 2027, while UBS Global Research expects rates to return to 2.5% by the fourth quarter of 2027. Traders assign a 94% probability to a quarter-point December increase, according to LSEG data. In a separate note, eToro's Lale Akoner said energy producers and insurers could benefit from elevated energy prices and higher rates, while property companies, housebuilders, smaller companies and retailers could face pressure; banks may initially gain from wider lending margins, although that benefit could fade if loan demand weakens and defaults rise.

The information on this website is generated using AI and we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Please use it as reference information only.