France lowers 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% as deficit target comes under pressure

  • France lowered its 2026 government growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.7%.
  • Roland Lescure retained a 1.0% growth forecast for 2027.
  • Slower growth complicates France’s plan to cut its 2026 deficit to 5.0% of output.

France lowered its official 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.7%, Finance Minister Roland Lescure said, while retaining a 1.0% projection for 2027. The weaker outlook makes it harder to reduce the fiscal deficit to 5.0% of economic output this year and adds pressure as the government seeks parliamentary approval for its 2027 budget. Lescure cited a year marked by multiple shocks, while the war in the Middle East, summer heatwaves and drought have weighed on activity, including agricultural output. France’s borrowing costs have also risen as investors focus on weak public finances and repeated slippage in deficit-reduction plans. Separately, INSEE had forecast 0.4% growth for 2026, citing weak domestic demand, declining investment, inflation and labour-market pressures.

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