Global coal demand is projected to rise 1.2% year over year in 2026 to a record 8.94 billion tons, overturning earlier forecasts that consumption would peak around 2024 or decline after 2025. The International Energy Agency attributed the revision mainly to shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S.-Iran war, which have constrained LNG supplies and driven Asian and European natural gas prices to their highest levels since the 2022–2023 energy crisis. Countries with gas-fired generation and spare coal capacity, including economies in Europe, Japan and South Korea, have increased coal-fired power output. Strong El Niño conditions are also lifting cooling demand and reducing hydropower generation in India, Vietnam and other Asian countries. India’s coal consumption is forecast to rise 4.2% to 1.353 billion tons, while South Korea’s is expected to increase 6%; demand is projected to fall 1% in Japan and 7% in the United States. Global coal production is forecast to decline 0.7% in 2026 but remain above 9 billion tons for a third straight year. The outlook for 2027 depends heavily on whether LNG shipping through the strait resumes and natural gas prices ease. Renewables continue to expand, but not quickly enough to offset rising electricity demand and drive fossil-fuel consumption lower.