Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has effectively caught up with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the latest AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, leading 46.4% to 46.2% in a simulated second-round runoff ahead of October’s presidential election. The result reverses Lula’s 47.1% to 42.6% advantage in late August and coincides with an escalating dispute within Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court over communications involving Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Daniel Vorcaro, the former owner of Banco Master SA. The bank’s collapse is at the center of a fraud investigation that has unsettled political and financial circles. Lula has called for full transparency and said anyone involved in wrongdoing should be held accountable, while his approval rating has fallen to 44%, the lowest recorded by AtlasIntel since it began tracking the measure in early 2024. Flávio’s gains could carry their own risks because he previously sought funding from Vorcaro for a documentary about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, an episode that preceded a nearly 7-point decline in his support in May. Separately, Flávio has moved ahead of Lula on Polymarket, where the Brazilian presidential market has surpassed $147 million in trading volume.