Surging oil prices linked to the US-Iran war are intensifying inflation concerns and complicating interest-rate decisions by central banks. Brent crude is around $105 a barrel as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil and gas shipping route, have been restricted. The European Central Bank recently raised rates to 2.5%, warning inflation was "set to remain well above" its 2% target. The US Federal Reserve has held rates between 3.5% and 3.75% for five consecutive meetings, but strong employment, higher energy prices and comments from newly-appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh have led many on Wall Street to bet on a rate increase. Deutsche Bank economists called a hike "the most likely policy outcome," while Oxford Economics economist Grace Zwemmer expects rates to remain unchanged. A cut is widely viewed as unlikely. President Donald Trump is pressing for lower rates and has said oil prices may not fall until the war ends, which he expects after November's elections. The Bank of England is also expected to weigh rising price pressures against a weaker economy, with UK inflation at 2.9%, energy bills heading toward a three-year high and gas prices above 200p per therm. Markets broadly expect the Bank to keep rates at 3.75% because there is "no sign" of second-round effects, such as wage and business-price increases, according to Oxford Economics. KPMG's Yael Selfin said economic conditions outside the US, including in the UK, are much weaker than during the 2022 inflation shock, leaving workers with less leverage to demand higher pay.