Japan inflation stays elevated as 10-year JGB yield briefly returns to 3%

  • Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index rose 7.6% year-on-year in August as the 10-year JGB yield briefly returned to 3.000%.
  • The 10-year yield rose 0.090 percentage points to 3.000% on September 11, while the yen-based Import Price Index increased 24.8% year-on-year.
  • The Bank of Japan meets next week after holding its policy rate at 1%, with markets nearly fully pricing an increase to 1.25%.

Japan's Corporate Goods Price Index rose 7.6% year-on-year in August, above the 7.4% market forecast and close to July's revised 7.7% increase, while the yen-based Import Price Index climbed 24.8% year-on-year. The newly issued 10-year Japanese government bond yield briefly reached 3.000% on September 11, up 0.090 percentage points from the previous close and returning to the 3% range for the first time since September 2. Higher U.S. long-term yields, concerns about U.S. fiscal spending after President Trump's proposed $5,000 payment to every adult American if Republicans win control of both congressional chambers, rising crude oil prices amid the intensifying U.S.-Iran conflict, and persistent concerns over Japan's fiscal position pressured Japanese bonds. Stronger manufacturer sentiment, elevated producer prices and hawkish Bank of Japan communication have led markets to nearly fully price a policy-rate increase to 1.25% at the next meeting; Reuters-polled analysts expect rates to reach 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027.

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