The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for Russia’s crude oil production after Ukrainian drone attacks and Western sanctions compounded pressure across the country’s energy industry. The IEA lowered its 2026 forecast by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd and its 2027 estimate by 235,000 bpd to 8.6 million bpd. Russian crude production averaged 8.36 million bpd in August 2026, down 200,000 bpd from July and 695,000 bpd from a year earlier. Russia has not published official oil-output data since April 2023, leaving the IEA and other analysts reliant on satellite imagery, shipping data and other indirect indicators. Repeated strikes on facilities including sites in Saratov and Yamalo-Nenets have become harder to repair as sanctions restrict access to specialized equipment, replacement parts and technical expertise. Russia’s output was about 900,000 bpd below its OPEC+ quota in June, while temporary restrictions on diesel and other refined-fuel exports have aimed to protect domestic supplies at the cost of export revenue. The revised outlook has increased uncertainty over global oil balances, with market participants watching Russian supply, OPEC+ policy, demand and possible sanctions changes.