Banks raise oil forecasts as Gulf disruptions lift 14% year-end record odds

  • Major banks raised oil price forecasts amid Gulf shipping disruptions.
  • 14% is the market-implied likelihood of crude reaching a new year-end all-time high.
  • Strait of Hormuz vessel movements have fallen dramatically amid shipping slowdown.

Major banks have raised their oil price forecasts as disruptions in Gulf shipping slow traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a U.S. oil benchmark. Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast for late 2026 and beyond, citing expectations that Middle East shipping disruptions will persist into next year. Citi, UBS, Barclays and J.P. Morgan also revised their outlooks upward. Market pricing now assigns a 14% probability to crude reaching a new all-time high by December 31. Investors are watching further Gulf developments, OPEC (oil producers’ group) actions, Middle East geopolitics, sanctions, conflicts and changes in global oil demand or supply. Prediction-market analysis related to the developments is offered through Vera.

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