U.S. Stocks Rebound After Hot August CPI as Rate-Hike Bets Strengthen

  • U.S. stocks rebounded after August CPI exceeded forecasts, strengthening expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed hike at the Sept. 16 meeting.
  • August CPI rose 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month, while core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% annually; Barclays raised its core PCE estimate to 0.25% from 0.22%.
  • FedWatch hike odds rose from roughly 70% to nearly 90%, while several banks projected August core PCE inflation at 0.30% or higher and CICC warned of further rate increases.

U.S. stocks rebounded Friday after August Consumer Price Index data exceeded expectations, strengthening expectations for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at its Sept. 16 meeting. The S&P 500 rose 0.9%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq each gained about 1%, though all three indexes remained lower for the week. CICC said the data reached a threshold for renewed tightening and forecast a possible federal funds target range of 3.75% to 4%. Wall Street economists subsequently raised their August core PCE forecasts toward the high 0.20% range, with several banks projecting 0.30% or higher and Barclays lifting its estimate to 0.25% from 0.22%.

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