Jeff Currie, founder and CEO of Real Macro, said on September 11, 2026, that US average gasoline prices have an "extremely high probability" of reaching $5 per gallon before the November 3 midterm elections. With the national average at about $4.27 to $4.29 in mid-September, that would represent an increase of roughly 17% in less than two months. Currie’s argument centers on refined products rather than crude alone: refinery outages, disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and declining Russian refining capacity have tightened gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel supplies. The 3-2-1 crack spread is at multi-decade highs, while diesel crack spreads exceed $100 per barrel and national diesel prices have reached approximately $5.80 to $5.90 per gallon. Currie also cited currency debasement, which can lift dollar-denominated commodity prices as purchasing power declines, creating what he calls a "toxic combination" with physical scarcity. Market pricing for crude oil reaching an all-time high by December 31 is consistent with scenarios in which supply constraints and inflationary pressures persist. OPEC, the U.S. government, geopolitical developments and energy-policy decisions are among the factors market participants will monitor. Higher fuel prices could intensify headline inflation, complicate monetary-policy decisions late in 2026 and influence voter sentiment as early voting begins.