Social Security benefits could receive a cost-of-living adjustment of 3.4% to 3.6% in 2027, based on August inflation data and estimates from several groups. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, projected a 3.5% increase, while AARP estimated 3.6%, the Senior Citizens League forecast 3.5%, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated 3.4%. AARP said a 3.6% adjustment would increase the average retiree benefit by about $75 a month, compared with a $56 average increase from the 2.8% adjustment for 2026. The Social Security Administration will announce the official COLA on Oct. 14 after September inflation data completes the calculation. The adjustment is based on the third-quarter average of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, compared with the same period a year earlier. Consumer prices rose 3.4% in August, while the CPI-W increased 3.5% from a year earlier. Advocates for older Americans argue that the CPI-W does not adequately reflect retiree spending, particularly on health care and prescription drugs. A proposal to use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or CPI-E, would give more weight to medical care and housing, though government estimates indicate it would increase Social Security's long-term funding shortfall by roughly 11%. A separate flat-rate COLA proposal would provide all beneficiaries the same dollar increase but would reduce adjustments for 80% of beneficiaries, according to AARP's Public Policy Institute. The program's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund is projected to exhaust its reserves at the end of 2032. It would then be able to pay roughly 80% of scheduled benefits, according to the 2026 Social Security and Medicare Trustees' annual report.