TD Securities expects Fed to deliver first of three rate hikes in September

  • TD Securities strategists revised their forecast for three Federal Reserve rate hikes.
  • Three increases are expected in September, October and January next year.
  • U.S. August CPI exceeded expectations, lifting traders’ near-term rate-hike expectations.

TD Securities strategists now expect the Federal Reserve to begin a three-hike cycle in September, reversing their previous forecast that the central bank would remain on hold for the rest of 2026. The strategists, including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg, said in a report published Friday that further increases are expected in October and January next year. They added that the Fed may not offer forward guidance, while its dot plot (official projections of interest rates) should nevertheless take a hawkish stance. The shift followed the release of U.S. August CPI (consumer-price inflation), which came in above expectations and led traders to increase their expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes.

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