Goldman Sachs joins Wall Street in forecasting a September Fed rate hike

  • Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 15-16, 2026, meeting.
  • August core CPI rose 0.3% month on month, exceeding the 0.2% consensus estimate, while its annual rate eased to 2.4%.
  • CME FedWatch priced a September hike at 86.5% after the report, while Bitcoin later slipped from near $78,700 toward $77,500.

Goldman Sachs reversed its forecast that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady and now expects a 25-basis-point increase when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its September 15-16, 2026, meeting. The shift followed a 0.3% month-on-month rise in August core CPI, above the 0.2% consensus estimate, while annual core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.5%. CME FedWatch odds of a September hike rose from roughly 69% after the release to 86.5% by the session close, with later pricing near 85%-90%. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Mitsubishi UFJ and TD Securities also expect an increase. Bitcoin traded near $78,700 Friday, reached an intraday high of $79,505, then slipped toward $77,500 on Saturday as markets repriced for tighter policy. Investors are focused on whether the expected hike is a one-off move or signals further tightening.

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