Oil market withstands Iran war shock as prices rise above $100

Sep 11, 2026 20:06 (41d ago)

The Iran war and Houthi attacks disrupted roughly 13 million barrels per day of oil production and transit, while prices rose above $100 per barrel.
Alternative routes, stockpiles and a roughly 5 million-barrel-per-day demand decline offset much of the shock, although US households paid nearly $800 more for fuel and inventories fell.
The EIA expects Strait of Hormuz exports to remain constrained through year-end; EIA and OPEC forecasts differ, while analysts warn of tighter inventories and greater volatility.

The Iran war and Houthi attacks disrupted roughly 13 million barrels per day of oil production and transit, but alternative shipping routes, stockpiles and a roughly 5 million-barrel-per-day decline in global demand kept crude reaching consumers. Oil prices nevertheless rose above $100 per barrel, with Brent exceeding $100 and the main crude benchmark reaching $120 earlier in the conflict, despite previous strategic-reserve releases. Average US households paid nearly $800 more for fuel, while declining inventories, constrained Strait of Hormuz flows and limited refining and pipeline capacity increased the risk of further volatility. The EIA expects Hormuz exports to remain constrained through year-end, while EIA and OPEC forecasts differ but include expectations of a modest surplus.