Polymarket traders assign Bitcoin a 64% probability of reaching $80,000 by Sept. 30, down nearly 30% since Sept. 9, while the probability of a dip to $75,000 stands at 68.5%. The $80,000 contract resolves as yes if any Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle records a high of at least $80,000 before 11:59 p.m. Eastern time on Sept. 30. Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $79,505, falling $495 short of the threshold. The market was created Sept. 7, and prices before creation do not count, despite Bitcoin trading at $81,265 on Sept. 4 and $80,329 on Sept. 7. September price-event contracts recorded $5.17 million in volume and about $1.46 million in liquidity. Traders priced Bitcoin’s chances of reaching $82,500, $85,000, $87,500, $90,000 and $100,000 at 39.5%, 23.5%, 13.5%, 8.5% and 1.75%, respectively; the odds for $72,500, $70,000 and $65,000 were 40.5%, 22.5% and 7.5%. Jobless claims and August inflation have passed, while the Sept. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting remains the key scheduled event before the deadline.