Won’s 15.41% rally leads major currencies as volatility tests exporters and ETFs

  • The South Korean won appreciated 15.41% against the dollar, leading 20 major currencies.
  • The won-dollar rate reached 1,334.6 won on Sept. 9 before rebounding to 1,349.9 won.
  • Export-company dollar selling and reduced foreign equity outflows supported the won’s appreciation.

The South Korean won has posted the strongest appreciation among 20 major currencies in the third quarter, gaining 15.41% against the dollar from 1,559.9 won on July 1 to 1,344.1 won by Sept. 11. The increase was roughly three times the Japanese yen’s 5.84% rise, while the Dollar Index was almost unchanged. Export-company dollar selling, sharply reduced foreign equity outflows and a narrower South Korea-U.S. interest-rate gap have supported the rally. The won-dollar rate briefly fell to 1,334.6 won on Sept. 9 before rebounding to 1,349.9 won on Sept. 11 as Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and revived concerns about U.S. inflation and interest rates. Average daily exchange-rate volatility reached 67.8 won, increasing the risks for importers, exporters and corporate hedging. The move also improved the relative performance of currency-hedged South Korea-listed U.S. equity ETFs and benefited products positioned for a lower dollar-won rate, while unhedged and dollar-advantage products lagged. Markets were focused on the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 meeting and the Bank of Japan’s expected policy move, with analysts divided between a short-term won pullback and continued medium-term appreciation.

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