Ukraine faces roughly $40 billion in threatened export revenue, nearly $10 billion in infrastructure and fixed-asset damage and an estimated 1.5 percentage point hit to GDP in 2026 as intensified Russian attacks constrain Black Sea ports and key industries. Grain capacity has fallen from about 6 million tons a month to 4 million, while rail and road routes handle only 33% to 40% of normal port-bound volumes. The Economy Ministry estimates second-half 2026 export losses of $7 billion to $8 billion if restrictions persist, with annualized losses of $8 billion to $15 billion. Domestic revenue fell $1.35 billion short of projections in the first eight months, while Ukraine spent about $42 billion on defense against $39 billion from domestic revenue and local borrowing. The daily cost of the war rose to about $190 million from $140 million in 2024, increasing pressure on Kyiv to cut nonmilitary spending and secure Western support.