The Iran war has lasted more than six months, but the oil market has continued supplying crude despite a roughly 13 million-barrel-per-day loss in production and transit. Average US households have paid nearly $800 more for fuel since the war began, while oil prices have risen without reaching their all-time highs. JPMorgan chief commodities analyst Natasha Kaneva attributes the resilience to alternative routes around or through the Strait of Hormuz, relatively strong inventories outside the United States and China, and a roughly 5 million-barrel-per-day fall in global demand. Saudi Arabia has redirected several million barrels per day through pipelines to ports outside Iran's reach, although advances by Iran's Houthi allies have raised questions about that route. The US military has also coordinated with Gulf states to escort an undercover shuttle operation through the strait, while the United States, Venezuela, Brazil, Guyana and Canada have increased combined production by roughly 2 million barrels per day. Kaneva says the market could sustain its current equilibrium for some time, with JPMorgan forecasting oil near $87 a barrel if the conflict becomes prolonged and $64 if it ends. Rapidan Energy Group president and co-founder Bob McNally is more pessimistic, forecasting Brent at $89 a barrel next year under a prolonged-conflict scenario. The main risks are declining inventories, limited ability to expand pipeline alternatives, dependence on US military escorts and the possibility of renewed escalation. Cushing, Oklahoma, reached operational minimums in July before recovering slightly, while China's oil imports remain millions of barrels per day below pre-war levels despite a recent increase. Analysts say inventories could create greater price volatility by late next year if the current conditions persist. The US Energy Information Administration expects Hormuz exports to remain constrained through the rest of the year, while S&P Global Energy no longer expects Middle East production to return to pre-war levels by the end of next year.