Bitcoin must close above $81,700 to confirm the start of a new bull market, CryptoQuant said, identifying the level as its current 365-day moving average and a threshold reclaimed in previous bullish cycles. Bitcoin recently traded between $76,000 and $82,000 after stalling at $79,890 on Sept. 11, with resistance concentrated near the upper end of that range. Long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC on a 30-day basis between $77,100 and $80,200 this year, creating a significant supply zone. A break above $81,700 would put resistance at $83,600 and $88,700 in focus. Key support levels are $70,000, near the 200-day moving average, and $62,000-$65,000, where long-term holders bought about 476,000 BTC this year. The broader trend remains positive, but Bitcoin must absorb overhead supply before another upward phase can begin. Existing market pressures include elevated futures open interest near $51.9 billion, about $183 million in liquidations over the latest 24-hour period, and roughly $449.5 million in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows across three sessions. The Sept. 16 Federal Reserve decision remained the next major macro catalyst, with markets assigning an 85%-87% probability to a quarter-point rate hike after August CPI rose 3.4% year over year.