August CPI keeps Fed hike case alive as Bitcoin gains 2.08%

  • Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.4% August CPI increase after July’s 0.1% rise.
  • 0.3%: Core CPI accelerated monthly, while annual core inflation eased to 2.4% from 2.5%.
  • FedWatch futures put a quarter-point September hike at about 85%, up from about 70%.

August's consumer price index rose 0.4% after increasing 0.1% in July, with gasoline accounting for more than one-third of the monthly gain. The gasoline-led composition offered some justification for looking through the headline because volatile energy prices can distort the broader inflation signal. However, core CPI (consumer prices excluding food and energy) accelerated to 0.3% from 0.2% monthly, even as its annual rate eased to 2.4% from 2.5%. Shelter also increased 0.3%, while services excluding energy services rose 3.0% over 12 months. The mixed report preserved Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's conditional case for considering a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting if inflation became hotter or reversed its progress toward the Fed's 2% goal. Futures markets raised the implied probability of a quarter-point increase to about 85% from about 70% before the report, based on CME's 30-Day Fed Funds futures methodology. Bitcoin was at $78,683, up 2.08% over 24 hours when U.S. trading closed for the week, but later fell to around $77,500 during thin Saturday liquidity. September's energy-price shock was not captured in August CPI and remains a separate risk for future inflation data and expectations.

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