Fed and Bank of Japan decisions set for pivotal week as rate pressures build

  • The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are scheduled to announce policy decisions, with the Bank of Japan potentially raising rates to 1.25%.
  • U.S. PPI rose 5.4% annually, while markets priced nearly 90% odds of a Fed hike and 98% odds of a Bank of Japan hike.
  • Ueda’s September 18 guidance, higher oil and Treasury yields, fiscal concerns and household mortgage costs are central market concerns.

Global markets face a pivotal week as the Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan prepare policy decisions amid persistent U.S. inflation, higher oil prices and fiscal concerns. The Fed is scheduled to meet September 15–16, followed by the Bank of Japan on September 17–18, with interest-rate markets assigning nearly 90% odds to a U.S. hike and 98% odds that the Bank of Japan will raise its policy rate from 1.0% to 1.25%. If delivered, the Japanese rate would reach its highest level since 1995, placing particular pressure on younger mortgage borrowers. August U.S. PPI rose 5.4% year over year, above the 5.3% forecast, while headline CPI remained at 3.4% and core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. Markets are now focused on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s September 18 guidance on future increases, while the wider schedule includes the Bank of England decision, U.S. and eurozone data, equity-market developments and scheduled cryptocurrency events.

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