Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP face macro test as Fed hike odds reach 86.5%

  • Fed rate-hike odds rose to 86.5% after the latest U.S. inflation report.
  • Bitcoin analyst Michaël van de Poppe identified $90,000-$92,000 as the next resistance zone.
  • XRP fell about 20% in three weeks and retested the $1.35 support level.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are approaching key technical levels as the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike rises sharply after higher U.S. inflation. The CME FedWatch tool puts the odds of a 25-basis-point increase in the Fed’s target range from 350-375 to 375-400 at 86.5%, up from about 70% before the latest inflation report. The move would be the first rate increase in three years, while traders are also pricing in further increases. U.S. CPI inflation rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, weighing on Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were less convinced: fewer than 13% of 48 respondents expected an increase at the Sept. 15-16 meeting, or at the next rate decision in December 2027. Bitcoin analyst Michaël van de Poppe sees consolidation before a potential move toward $90,000 and possibly $92,000. Ethereum is testing resistance around $2,547-$2,550, with a weekly close above that area potentially opening a path toward $3,000, according to analyst Ted Pillows. XRP has fallen about 20% in three weeks to retest $1.35, while whale selling and a 90.18% decline in daily active addresses point to weaker network participation. Ali Martinez said a sustained move above $1.35 and a recovery of $1.38 could support a rebound toward $1.60 and potentially $1.68. The Fed decision matters for crypto because borrowing costs influence financial conditions and demand for risk assets.

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