Global trade reroutes through connector countries as U.S.-China trade falls 40%

  • South Korea is shifting supply chains through Vietnam and other third-country hubs.
  • 18.5%: Korean value added through Vietnam served U.S. final demand in 2022.
  • Bank of Korea recommended diversifying countries and production routes.

Global trade is being rerouted through connector countries rather than divided into two opposing blocs, despite intensifying U.S.-China tensions and broader geopolitical fragmentation. Direct U.S.-China trade fell about 40% in 2025 from 2022, while worldwide trade continued expanding through economies such as Vietnam, India and Mexico. The Bank of Korea said in an issue note released on the 13th that these countries are taking a larger role as intermediate hubs linking South Korea with U.S. and Chinese markets. South Korean value added reaching U.S. final demand through Vietnam rose to 18.5% in 2022 from 11.1% in 2016, while the share reaching Chinese final demand increased to 13.9% from 7.3%. In semiconductors and electronics, the corresponding shares rose to 21.0% from 12.8% for U.S. demand and to 19.4% from 11.2% for Chinese demand. The share of South Korean value added serving U.S. final demand through five major ASEAN economies increased to 8.3% from 4.9%, while the share passing through China fell to 6.8% from 10.7%; the direct South Korea-U.S. share remained around 73%. The central bank warned that tighter U.S. rules of origin and stronger transshipment investigations could expose companies using third-country production bases, and recommended diversifying countries and routes.

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