Global markets brace for super central bank week as Fed hike odds near 90%

  • Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Taiwan’s Central Bank face rate decisions this week.
  • 87.3% was the CME FedWatch probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike last Friday.
  • Taiwan’s market fell 755.64 points Friday amid NT$111.258 billion in institutional net selling.

Global markets face an unusually concentrated run of monetary-policy decisions, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Taiwan’s Central Bank scheduled to announce rates within days. Markets were pricing an 87.3% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed increase as of last Friday, with Taiwan-based traders citing estimates of 86% to 90%. Such a move would be the Fed’s first benchmark-rate increase in three years. The Fed will announce its decision on U.S. Eastern Time September 16, early September 17 Taipei time, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Expectations strengthened after August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above the 0.2% consensus forecast, although headline CPI increased 3.4% year over year in line with expectations. TD Securities said the data showed no improvement in inflation, while Bloomberg economists Anna Wong, Andrew Sacher and Eliza Winger said investors expect a hike and that failing to deliver could damage Warsh’s credibility. Three Fed officials dissented in favor of a hike at the July FOMC meeting, and updated growth, inflation and rate-path projections are due this Wednesday. Goldman Sachs expects another 25-basis-point increase but said high rates need not end the equity bull market if earnings and corporate balance sheets remain strong. It projects S&P 500 earnings per share of $340 in 2026, up 24% from 2025, and $385 in 2027, up 13%. eToro’s Bret Kenwell said the key issue is whether the move is a one-time defensive increase or the beginning of a prolonged tightening cycle, while BNY Wealth Chief Investment Officer Alicia Levine warned that signals of a new hiking cycle would hurt financial markets. Japan’s central bank is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest since 1995, while the BOE is broadly expected to hold at 3.75%, despite a roughly 32% hike probability and hawkish officials. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points last Thursday, and BNP Paribas expects another increase in December. Taiwan’s market fell 755.64 points Friday as institutions recorded combined net selling of NT$111.258 billion, while TSMC’s September 16 ex-dividend date and Taiwan’s pending rate decision add uncertainty. Oil, Treasury yields and geopolitical risks are also central variables: WTI rose 9.37% last week to $100.05 per barrel, Brent gained 8.65% to $104.61, and the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.354%.

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