Sweden’s centre-left opposition led by Social Democratic Party leader Magdalena Andersson was projected to win 176 of 349 parliamentary seats, against 173 for Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s right-wing governing bloc, according to an early Swedish Election Authority update covering 4,853 of 6,312 districts. SVT projected the opposition at 51.3% of the vote, while its party-level projection put the Social Democrats at 28.4%, below their 30.3% result in 2022; a separate TV4 poll also showed the centre-left ahead. Andersson said Sweden could get a new government if the result held, while Kristersson said he would contact other party leaders and that the governing outcome remained open. Exit polls have previously miscalled Sweden’s result, and final seats and coalition talks remain decisive. Market pricing has shifted toward a second-place Social Democratic finish, while Nooshi Dadgostar’s prospects of becoming prime minister may improve if the centre-left lead is confirmed. Vera is providing live prediction-market analysis.