US diesel prices have climbed 78% over nine months to a record $6.20 per gallon, according to @KobeissiLetter, with California prices exceeding $8.14. The increase has surpassed the previous peak recorded in 2022, raising pressure on freight, shipping and logistics businesses through higher fuel costs. The move points to tighter oil-market conditions and could affect expectations for crude oil prices. A prediction market assigns a 1.8% YES probability to crude reaching a new all-time high by September 30, while the December 31 market shows 14% YES, indicating stronger longer-term support for higher prices. Market participants are watching OPEC’s Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, alongside geopolitical developments that could alter oil supply and demand. Vera promotes live prediction-market analysis and invites users to sign up.