Bitcoin traded near $77,250 three days before the Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, was due to decide interest rates on September 16. Interest-rate futures priced an 86.5% chance of a quarter-point increase, while prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket put the odds above 80%. The market pricing followed August consumer prices rising 0.4% after a 0.1% gain in July, bringing annual inflation to 3.4%. The Federal Open Market Committee held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, when three officials dissented in favor of an increase. Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long argues that the more consequential shift is the Treasury Department's growing influence over digital-dollar rules and longer-dated bond-market conditions. Treasury doubled longer-dated bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation on August 19 after 10-year and 30-year yields reached 20-year highs, but yields soon recovered. The buyback program runs from September 9 to November 4. Long also points to proposed Treasury and OCC (U.S. bank regulator) rules under the GENIUS Act, which takes effect on January 18, 2027, while the Federal Reserve has not published proposed rules. She expects tokenized deposits (bank dollars transferred on blockchain rails) to pressure stablecoins (cryptocurrencies pegged to fiat currencies).